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Global Economic Outlook for Q3 2026: Growth Tested by Energy and Trade Shocks
24 Aug 26The Strait of Hormuz blockage is the defining economic shock of 2026, disrupting a critical energy corridor and driving oil prices sharply higher. Alongside higher tariffs, rising energy costs have weakened global growth by squeezing household purchasing power and corporate margins. Energy importers face the largest impact; exporters and economies with diversified supply, resilient domestic demand or effective subsidies are better placed to absorb it.
Aiste Bijune
Trump Tariff Shifts: What They Mean for Businesses and Global Markets
30 Jul 26The US has introduced a new round of Trump tariffs, keeping tariff pressure in place after the previous temporary 10% global duties expired on 24 July 2026. For many major economies, the headline rate has not changed; the bigger shift is that the tariffs now sit on a more durable framework, with some partners facing higher 12.5% rates.
Aiste Bijune
US-Iran Agreement Signals Fragile Economic Stabilisation
26 Jun 26The US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding, signed on 17 June, marks a pivotal shift from disruption to stabilisation — consistent with Euromonitor's central scenario, which anticipated conditions beginning to ease in mid-2026. However, the deal is a starting point, not a resolution. Mines, fragile confidence, and infrastructure damage mean full recovery of Strait of Hormuz shipping flows will take months. Energy costs and supply chain pressures will ease gradually, while uncertainty remains elevated.
Aiste Bijune
Global Economic Outlook for Q2 2026: Growth Redefined by Energy Shock
8 Jun 26The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, a consequence of the US/Israel-Iran war, has emerged as the defining economic disruption of 2026. The impact extends beyond energy markets: rerouted shipping, airspace restrictions and disrupted exports of petrochemicals and fertilisers have raised freight and input costs globally, reducing margins and exposing the depth of vulnerability in energy importing and trade-dependent economies.
Aiste Bijune
2026 Global Economic Update and Mid-Year Outlook
4 Jun 26Your mid-year outlook for the global economy in 2026. Find the latest GDP growth projections, inflation forecasts and risk scenarios across key markets to inform your decisions in the months ahead.
Euromonitor International
Infographic: Impact of Iran War on Industries and Consumers
26 May 26The US/Israel-Iran war has delivered a dual shock to global supply chains through production decline and transit disruption, with Gulf crude oil output down approximately 60% (at time of writing). Infrastructure destruction prolongs recovery, while commodity shortages impacting packaging, fertilisers and electronics accelerate ally-shoring and alternative energy adoption. Consumers face price increases and volume decline, with stagflation posing the most significant structural risk.
Zora Milenkovic